FLUG REVUE March 2003: Poland chooses F-16 Fighting Falcon

POLAND OPTS FOR F-16S

By B. Glowacki/G. Sobczack/KS

"There can be only one winner, and the winner is the Lockheed Martin F-16C/D Block 50/52,” announced Poland's Defence Minister, Jerzy Szmajdzinski, on 27 December in Warsaw. "The American proposal is the most comprehensive and the best.” After several fruitless initiatives since the mid-1990s, modernisation of the Polish air force and air defence troops (WLOP) has finally advanced a critical step closer.

Assuming that no difficulties surface during the forthcoming negotiations on the details of the order, a contract could be signed in the spring. This would make it possible for deliveries of the 12 two-seaters to commence in June 2006. All 36 single seaters should be available by the end of 2008. They will be replacing the ageing MiG 21's, which are all to be retired next year. One of the three F-16 squadrons must be fully operational the same year, as the aircraft are earmarked for the NATO Rapid Reaction Forces.

The WLOP, which has been a member of NATO since 1999, will no longer have to feel embarrassed next to the Western air forces, as their F-16's will be state-of-the-art, equipped with APG-68(V)9 radar (capability to create radar maps), ALQ-211(V)4 electronic warfare suite and AIM-9X and AIM-120C5 air-to-air missiles. On top of this, part of the fleet will be equipped with Pantera targeting pods. Air-to-ground weapons will include JDAM and JSOW.

In the end the decision in favour of the Fighting Falcon came as no surprise, as Poland had recently shown a clear political preference for a close military tie with the USA. Officially, the selection was made by a 23-person evaluation committee, using a complicated points award system. Up to 45 points could be awarded for the "best price”, 20 points were assigned to "operational suitability”, 20 points to "compliance with tactical and technical requirements” and 15 points for offset business. The results were not published, but rumour has it that the Fighting Falcon was awarded 96 points. The Saab/BAE Systems Gripen apparently scored 93 points, followed by the Dassault Mirage 2000-5 Mk II.

According to the Deputy Defence Minister, Janusz Zemke, "48 F-16's complete with weapons and all the maintenance and logistics components [will cost] $3,478,946,936. With interest, the total price comes to $4.7 billion.” In October 2002, the US Congress approved a $3.8 billion loan. In the first eight years, Poland will only have to pay the modest interest charges, with repayment of the loan deferred to between 2011 and 2015.

To observers, the most surprising aspect was the evaluation of the proposals for industrial offsets. Andrzej Szarawarski, who was involved in the evaluation as deputy Economic Minister, estimated that the American proposal was worth $9,801 billion. "After reviewing the proposal we are assuming that the real value of the offsets will be $6,023 billion,” he said. Saab/BAE offered Euro 7,746 billion (Euro 4,699 billion according to the Poles), while Dassault only managed to come up with Euro 3,801 billion (Euro 2,108 billion in real terms).

How these numbers were arrived at is difficult to judge. Unofficially the story goes that the figures depended largely on the multiplier factors used, which were weighted in favour of work in the high-technology area. However, the American proposal was also given credit for unlikely deals such as a teaming agreement with Alberta Aerospace to develop the Phoenix jet trainer, which has no hope of market success. Assurances of assistance with marketing and obtaining FAA certification for the M-28 Skytruck and the W-3 Sokol and SW-4 helicopters are also non-committal by nature.

The Americans' offset package includes over 100 projects, which evidently was deliberately hiked up to strengthen shortcomings elsewhere in their score. Still, at least the work promised directly in connection with the F-16 is certain to materialise. This includes the production of parts by PZL Mielec and PZL Swidnik. Mielec is to be responsible for overhaul as well.

PZL Rzeszow, in which Pratt & Whitney is the majority shareholder, will make components for the F100-PW-229 engine and also carry out final assembly. The maintenance work is to be performed by military depot no. 4 (Wojskow Zaklady Lotnicze) in Warsaw.

From page 78 of FLUG REVUE 3/2003

Last updated 15 February 2003

FLUG REVUE, Ubierstr. 83, 53173 Bonn, Germany