FLUG REVUE July 2003: Comeback for the regional turboprops?

TURBOPROPS IN FOR A COMEBACK?

By Patrick Hoeveler

What does the future hold in store for regional turboprops? Many insiders had forecast their rapid demise given the jet boom of recent years. In fact, the proportion of jet-powered airliners in the fleets of the members of the European Regions Airline Association is continuing to grow. In 1988, jets accounted for five percent of passenger aircraft by number. Today the equivalent figure is 53 percent, turboprops having been overtaken for the first time in 2001.

This trend is also reflected in a drastic streamlining of the product range. In the 19-seater market, which actually began the stream of feeder flights but today is of only minor significance, only the Raytheon 1900D is still in production. Manufacturing of aircraft like the Dornier 228, the BAe Jetstream and the Embraer Bandeirante ceased some time ago. In the 30-seat class, only the Bombardier Q100 is still available, even if of late the Canadians have not found any customers for their smallest Dash-8 variant. Embraer delivered its last EMB-120 Brasilia in 2001, while Saab discontinued production of the 340 back in 1998, just as Fairchild Dornier did with the 328. Today, only two manufacturers, ATR and Bombardier, have survived in the fiercely competitive 50-seat (ATR42 and Q300) and 70 or more seat (ATR72 and Q400) markets. Rival products such as the Saab 2000 or the BAe ATP/Jetstream 61 are only found on the used aircraft market.

Given the present state of the air transport industry, the perseverance of the Canadians and the French-Italian ATR consortium seems to have paid off. “In the present economic situation a lot of airlines are realising that they moved over to jets too hastily,” says Jacques Bankir, head of the Régional airline which flies for Air France and one-third of whose fleet consists of turboprops. “If they had stuck with turboprops, the carriers would have been able to hold on to some of the routes that they were forced to give up.”

On the other hand, a lot of passengers, including in Germany, continue to regard propeller aircraft as “old”. It is this revulsion on the part of passengers, the so-called “prop avoidance factor”, which is providing the impetus to the continued switch to the jet. “But if the economic situation goes on like this, the turboprops will come back. They are simply more economical,” says Rüdiger Karl, head of technical operations at Contact Air.

A similar view is shared by the aircraft manufacturers. “Because of their efficiency, turboprops have never been so important, in Europe at any rate, as they are now,” says Jean-Pierre Cousserans, General Secretary of ATR. However, the situation is getting difficult as regards new orders. “We would like to deliver a standard 20 aircraft per year. This year it might be four less.” His competitor from Canada is somewhat more optimistic. Barry MacKinnon, Vice President Marketing and Airline Analysis at Bombardier, believes the potential for his 78-seat flagship is excellent. “The Q400 is as fast as a jet, and on 550 kilometre routes it offers the same block time as the BAe 146 or the Avroliner. At the same time it offers the lowest seat mile costs of any regional aircraft.” But even so, the thin order backlog made it necessary to suspend production for two months. Rescue came in the form of a firm order for 17 Q400's from FlyBe and a declaration of intent from Regional Airline Holdings (REGCO) for ten Q400's, which the new Canadian airline plans to operate from Toronto's City Centre Airport.

On the other hand, Dag Waldenström, Vice President Sales and Marketing at Saab Aircraft Leasing, believes there is a future for smaller planes such as the Saab 340, which account for the bulk of his business. “Airlines such as Augsburg Airways with the Q400 have moved over to larger aircraft which cannot be filled in a time of crisis like now.” As a result, he argues, destinations have to be given up and these are then taken over by smaller airlines such as OLT or City Air, as the demand is there. “There is always someone who wants to fly.” Because of the high seat mile costs, larger regional carriers can no longer afford to operate 30-seat aircraft. “We experienced a similar trend after the Gulf War at the beginning of the 1990s.” Waldenström views the jet competition as only marginal. “Jets are a different market. They only start to be profitable on routes between 550 and 740 kilometres.”

This suggests that the propeller-powered regionals should continue to be in demand even in the future. “There will be a backflow of jets being cast aside in favour of turboprops, especially with the new types like the ATR72 and Q400,” predicts Jacques Bankir, who plans to keep his turboprop fleet at Régional in any case.

His colleague from FlyBe, Jim French, is of the same opinion. “Efficiency is foremost.” Therefore, he argues, the future belongs to the turboprops of the new generation with 70 to 80 seats. Four cycles lasting around one hour cost the same on a CRJ200 as on a Q400. “But for the same price I can transport 15 more passengers.” In his view, regional turboprops like the Q400 whose performance is similar to that of a jet are therefore doing well out of the present situation.

According to Jean-Pierre Cousserans of ATR, the big airlines are already considering again the possibility of having a mixed fleet of jets and turboprops. “Pure jet fleets have failed. The airlines are realising that they are losing money on routes less than 650 kilometres.” Only in the USA do most of the airlines still believe in the “all-jet-fleet theory”. But even in the USA there is potential. “It is just taking longer to move from the extreme jet position to a balanced split.”

But whether this trend translates into new orders remains doubtful. Production of new turboprops is currently very low and is largely restricted to bigger planes. Dag Waldenström of Saab, at least, believes that even when the economy picks up again the airlines will start out by leasing used aircraft. “To buy a new turboprop one would need to amortise it over about 15 years. But given the uncertain future, operators are unwilling to make such a commitment.” Both ATR and Saab are agreed that the cargo market, which has grown in recent years, at any rate will concentrate almost exclusively on used aircraft.

But the competition from low-cost carriers and heavily subsidised high-speed railway networks will increase the competition, as James Hoblyn, Vice-President Market, Sales and Asset Management at Bombardier, pointed out at an ERA conference in Stuttgart. Nevertheless, the regionals will continue to be essential as providers of feeder services for large aircraft like the Airbus A380. But exactly what the next generation of regional turboprops will look like no one can say. What is certain, however, is that they will have even lower operating costs and possibly a short take-off and landing capability for airports situated in city centres and that they will probably be based on turboprop propulsion technology.

“The future is still a long way off. First of all we need to analyse the market. Besides, in the Q400 we have a young product on hand,” says MacKinnon of Bombardier. It could fly another 20 to 30 years and is therefore the most important product in the Q series. At present the Q200 is more attractive for special services, whereas the Q300 is being built in smaller numbers, currently around one per month, as a replacement for older turboprops.

On the other side of the Atlantic, ATR has already begun a collaborative study with airlines and engine manufacturers on the future of regional transport in ten to 15 years. This is intended to cast a light on future requirements in the areas of environment, economy etc. On the other hand, there are no plans to make significant changes to the existing family in the near future. “If we were to develop a new aircraft today, it would look very similar to the ATR42-500 or -72-500,” says Cousserans.

From FLUG REVUE 7/2003

Last updated 11 June 2003

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