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Home | Update | Latest Issue | Gallery | FR Profile | Datafiles | FR 11/97 EUROPE NEEDS TO INVEST INTO ITS SPACE FUTURE by Wolfdietrich Hoeveler Done! With the one hundredth launch of an Ariane rocket, Europe has proven the efficiency of its space industry. It also proved the correctness of the decision in the seventies, to develop a European launch vehicle under the leadership of France. In 1996, Arianespace has achieved a 60 percent share of the market, such being the world's leader for launch services. An order backlog for the launch of 43 satellites is securing European jobs in a high-technology industry beyond the change of the centuries. To maintain this market share beyond the year 2000 is a double challenge for the industry and the politics. First, Ariane 5 must fly successfully. After last year's failure, the program managers are nervously waiting. The pressure on the technicians is high. Caution is vital and a further delay of the launch date due to the danger of vibrations during flight are only reasonable. At the same time, the further development of Ariane 5 to be able to carry payloads up to ten tons and a new intelligent upper stage must be pushed. The research ministers of the ESA states have acknowledged that fact but, financing is not secure yet. There is not much time left since more and more competitors want to profit from the launch service market. In 1996, 48 large satellites were launched. Along with Ariane, the US rockets Atlas and Delta, Proton from Russia, the Chinese Long March, and Japan's H-II were used as launch systems. In the same period of time, launch contracts for 72 new satellites were signed (not counting the small constellation satellites for regional mobile phone networks). Arianespace managed to secure 19 of these orders, while the competing International Launch Services (ILS) won the bids for twelve contracts, concerning 31 satellites. Russia is preparing for the competition with new upper stages for the launch of multiple telecommunication satellites, in the USA, a new launch rocket family is being developed under a government contract, and the commercial Sea Launch Venture of Boeing and Russian partners is pushing on the market also. All activities focus on a new class of communication satellites in the 4,5-ton mass category. Unlike the forecasts from a time just a few years ago, the geostationary telecommunication satellites are becoming larger and heavier in order to integrate additional and new mobile phone and multi-media services. Arianespace is forecasting that after 2000 satellites with more than 3600 kg of mass will make up approximately one third of the world market. Satellite communication services will be offered by less but increasingly larger suppliers. A wave of company mergers, starting in the USA, will decrease the former regionalization of services. These developments will be speeding up the competition among the suppliers of launch services. It will be difficult for Arianespace to maintain its leading position. The task can probably not be accomplished without governmental support in developing new versions of Ariane 5. And this should go forward, as other countries are following the same line. The US government is paying for the develeopment of new launchers, as is Russia, China, Japan, and India. A financial flowback in more than triple the amount of the original development cost is highlighting the rightness of this process. For 1998 it is essential that Germany and its partner nations, in spite of financial problems, do secure the financing for the continuation of the Ariane 5 development. Otherwise, Europe will check out of a profitable business. From page 4 of FLUG REVUE 11/97 Home | Update | Latest Issue | Gallery | FR Profile | Datafiles | FR 11/97 Copyright 1997 by Motor-Presse Stuttgart. All rights reserved. Last updated October 16, 1997 FLUG REVUE, Ubierstr. 83, 53173 Bonn, Germany