FLUG REVUE July 2006: Airbus A350 may change dramatically

July 2006

AIRBUS A350 – CHANGES IN VIEW?

By Sebastian Steinke

It was so nearly the perfect air show for EADS: the biggest passenger aircraft in the world as the main attraction in the flying programme, record orders for 2005, a record order backlog with rising production rates, revenue up and thousands of new jobs in Germany and Europe for highly skilled engineers in aircraft construction secure for years ahead.

Yet after an initial, united appearance of the two EADS Chief Executive Officers, Thomas Enders and Noel Forgeard, at an EADS press conference on the opening day of ILA 2006, just in time for the separate Airbus press conference given by Gustav Humbert and Charles Champion the next day Forgeard caused a bomb to explode.

In an interview with the French newspaper Le Monde, Forgeard had divulged details of hitherto confidential discussions within Airbus regarding the future of the A350, demonstrably stabbing his successor, Gustav Humbert, in the back. As a result, instead of basking in the glory of the A380 and Airbus's excellent business figures, as he had hoped, Humbert found himself under fire over the A350 before the assembled journalists.

Humbert pleaded for understanding, asserting that any reply he gave to detailed questions on the A350 would break the commitment to remain silent that had been agreed within EADS. He would first need to talk to the customers, then to the shareholders and politicians and only then to the press. But he promised to provide full details to the public before the Farnborough Air Show in mid-July. No decisions, he said, had yet been taken.

By contrast, Forgeard had claimed in his interview with Le Monde that Airbus was finally planning to return to the drawing board over the A350. The original idea of an A330 derivative would be abandoned, as would be the name A350. Forgeard, who at the 2004 Berlin Air Show in response to a question from FLUG REVUE had described the Boeing 787 as a “Chinese copy of the A330”, was now demanding that the company should be “more aggressive” in raising the passenger capacity of the A350. The A350 replacement should have a capacity of 250 to 375 seats and the fuselage width should be extended by about half a metre so as to accommodate nine seats per row (unlike the present A350).

In this form, the future twin-engine jet, which might be called the A370, would not be simply a successor to the A330 and competitor to the 787, but above all a direct alternative to Boeing's flagship success model, the 777, including the recently improved version, the 777-300ER. In this extended market segment, there was likely to be demand for around 6,000 new aircraft between 2010 and 2030. Forgeard also hinted that the aerodynamics might be modified and that the new type would make greater use of carbon fibre composites.

Finally, the former CEO of Airbus suggested that Airbus as a company was in trouble and needed major changes to overcome a “growth crisis”. Together with Airbus chief executive Humbert one would initiate some different approach in developing future products.

Humbert admitted publicly at the Berlin Air Show that, as the former Chief Operating Officer under Noel Forgeard, he shared the responsibility for some of Airbus's problems. “Unlike other people,” Humbert said, “I also have the courage to take personal responsibility for this. Yes, there are things that Airbus could improve.”

At the beginning of every decision phase, he said, two questions had to be considered: “how do we become more customer-friendly and win even more market share?” and “how do we improve our profitability?” Airbus had very precise ideas and would be in a position to decide by Farnborough. The company was currently stepping up expenditure on research and development, was improving the A350, was already preparing for the next generation of aircraft and was significantly raising production rates.

Humbert talked about BAE Systems' announced disposal of its shares in Airbus. The timing of the announcement had been a surprise, but not the decision itself. Airbus UK's British factories would remain a part of Airbus together with the “wing centre of competence”. The company would continue to take on staff there and production would not be affected.

According to Thomas Enders and Noel Forgeard, EADS intended to acquire the 20 percent Airbus shareholding owned by the British itself. They expressly ruled out the possibility of another partner nation coming on board, for example, Russia, China, India or Dubai.

Despite this, EADS is stepping up cooperation with external partners: at the Berlin Air Show, EADS subsidiary Elbe Flugzeugwerke GmbH of Dresden signed a declaration of intent for a cooperation agreement with Russian aircraft manufacturers MiG and Irkut. The partners are planning to convert Airbus single aisle aircraft, initially the A320 and A321, into freighters in Russia and to also develop a conversion kit. The extent of co-operation between Airbus and Russia is set to rise over the ten-year period 2001 to 2011 from its previously planned $800 million to $900 million.

Aerospace nation Russia played a prominent part in the flying display programme. Thus, for example, a Beriev Be-200 amphibious water bomber in service with the Russian disaster control ministry released its payload of water in the Russian national colours in a simulated firefighting exercise. Meanwhile Tupolev had a Tu-204-300 on display until the Friday of the air show when apparently it had to leave early due to an imminent levy of attachment which a German businessmen was seeking to enforce against all the Russian exhibition stands.

Parked next to it was the first IL-76TD-90VD from Volga-Dnepr. Through its leasing subsidiary the air cargo company has financed a $25 million upgrade of the robust, four-engine high-wing aircraft to incorporate extremely quiet and clean PS-90A-76 turbofans from Aviadvigatel/Perm. This means that the 50-tonne freighter, which up to now has been too noisy for Western ears, will be allowed to land at Western airports again. It is now not only noise-certificated to Stage 4, but is also 14 percent more fuel-efficient, has a greater range, requires less runway to take off and flies faster.

As well as the new aircraft which continue to be built in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, a similar engine upgrade is being considered for the several hundred existing IL-76's. Apart from 15 cargo planes for civil customers, Volga-Dnepr would like to market the IL-76 upgraded with new avionics, especially to government customers not only in the USA and Australia but also to SALIS, the new air transport company from Leipzig which has up to now used leased An-124's for NATO.

From page 24 of FLUG REVUE 7/2006

Last updated 8 June 2006

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