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ASIAN AEROSPACE: SMALL BUT IMPORTANT

Dasa supplied the sensation during this year's Asian Aerospace, if only unintentionally. Joachim Hildemann, DaimlerChrysler Aerospace Manager South East Asia, who had only been in this post for two weeks, just announced that development costs for the giant jet Airbus A3XX were in real terms markedly higher than previously assumed. They were not $12bn but $15bn.

This announcement was made at the worst possible time, since the new European Aerospace and Defence Company, EADS, in which as is commonly known Dasa has a main input, is to enter the stock market in the middle of this year.

The reaction of DaimlerChrysler headquarters was instant: "These claims are wrong. Our new representative in Singapore does neither have the authority nor the ability to pass on this kind of information". This is how Manfred Bischoff, who was at that stage still Dasa's acting chairman, denied his colleague's statement.

It is especially poignant that Dasa as Airbus partner does not come out with any such negative publicity at this particular point in time in the region.

The Asian/Pacific area is seen as the key region for the sales success of the new A3XX. "About 660 airliners with a capacity of over 400 seats are needed in this region. This corresponds with half of the global potential for this kind of product. This is why we think that the local market enjoys top priority", explained Airbus boss Noel Foreguard in Singapore.

There will be plenty of possible customers, like Japanese carriers, Cathay Pacific, Singapore Airlines or also Malaysian Airlines. In the previous year Airbus was able to make 55 per cent of all the sales in this region. Only the most important first customer, who shows belief in the program and would give the relevant signal to the market, has not yet been found.

Despite this Airbus Industry adheres to the schedule for the mega airliner: the program will be started this year, the aircraft will start operating in the second half of 2005.

Boeing is also familiar with the problems of finding a first customer for the new "growth" models of the 777 family, the -200X and -300X. However, this did not prevent the aircraft manufacturer from Seattle to announce the program start for the two versions. This did not happen as was expected during the Asian Aerospace but two days after this trade fair was finished.

Apart from this Boeing does not get tired to desribe the market for aircraft of the category above 400 as small and unattractive. The intention of course is to point out to potential Airbus customers that everything, which was demanded of an aircraft of these dimensions, was already catered for by the 747.

Over the next 20 years there will only be call for 360 aircraft in the category in question, although the global airliner fleet will increase twofold because of the apparent route fragmentation. Larry Dickenson, Senior Vice President of the Boeing Commercial Airplane Group, estimates that there will only be a market for 80 aircraft of the mega-liner-kind in the next ten years.

If in the meantime there should be the necessity to construct such a giant jet, the company is said to be prepared with two stretched versions of the 747. It would be relatively cheap and quick to create these aircraft ($2 - 3bn) as opposed to the high development costs of the A3XX, which amounts to $12m, says Boeing.

The "payload model" will transport up to 500 passengers over distances of up to 14,400km, the "long distance version" will realistically cover distances of up to 16,100km with up to 450 passengers on board.

Boeing is (officially) not prepared to take on the financial risk for the new development in the style of the A3XX, the reason is the already mentioned market situation.

Embraer is a good example to illustrate how taking risks (supported by the government and during times of prospering markets) can pay off. The regional airliner program of the Brazilian aircraft manufacturer has now definitely found a foothold on the market. A new big contract plus the change of options into definite orders by Continental Airlines was announced at the show. Embraer and the US carrier announced a new order over 75 further "ERJ" as well as the conversion of 25 options into definite orders.

With this Continental alone has ordered 200 models (150 ERJ-145 and 50 ERJ-135). The airline plans to be operating all these aircraft by 2003. Embresa Brasileira de Aeronautica S.A. can boast definite orders in all for 567 units of both regional jets.

Bombardier does obviously not want to be second rate. The Canadians were able to win 726 definite orders for the 50-seater CRJ100 as well as 104 orders for the biggest CRJ700 (70 seats, first flight in May '99, certification at the end of this year) so far. In Montreal this seems to be cause for showing off with the CRJ900 (list price about $29m).

This model was launched at the beginning of this year. It is designed for 86 to 90 passengers and will, according to plan, take to the air for the first time in the first quarter of 2001. Certification is planned for the second quarter of 2002.

Two years after this, at the beginning of 2004, Bombardier plans to secure a big slice of the cake of the 100seater market with the BRJ-X. There will be two versions, which will range from 3,331km for the BRJ-X-110 and 4,441km for the BRJ-X-110ER, these models will seat between 100 to 115 passengers. A definite decision for the engine in the -89 to 98-kN-thrust class has not yet been made. One might either opt for the CFM56 of General Electric/Snecma, Pratt & Whitney's PW6000 or Rolls-Royce with the BR715. The first flight for the BRJ is planned for the first quarter of 2003.

While Bombardier orientates itself upwards, Boeing is obviously moving in the opposite direction with the 717. It was announced in Singapore, that the company is considering in how far a 70seater version of this model could be economically viable. There has been a drastic cost reduction program and the Seattle manufacturer is convinced that he can enter the market with a very competitive price (below $20m).

Fairchild Aerospace had to announce in the meantime that certification and handing over of the new 728JET to Lufthansa had to be postponed by six months. Instead of May 2002 the 70seater will be given its certification in November 2002. The reason: after what was described as a "critical design check" it was decided that a change of the door position would optimise the cabin space. Behind the scenes aerodynamic inefficiencies were named as the true reason. Lufthansa agreed to the "design alterations" under the condition that the aircraft will "be standing in the yard" in time for their special summer schedule for 2003.

From page 24 of FLUG REVUE 5/2000