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EUROPE'S TOP MILITARY AIRCRAFT

Europe is challenging American supremacy in fighter aircraft too. The Eurofighter, Gripen and Rafale all have opportunities to play a prominent role in the next few years.

Even the normally sceptical experts from the American market research institute Teal are sure of one thing: "Europe's share (of the fighter aircraft market) will climb dramatically.... The Eurofighter will be the best selling programme of the decade," they announce in their latest forecast.

In fact present circumstances could not be more auspicious for Eurofighter, Dassault and Saab: despite all the modernisation programmes, the F-16 Fighting Falcon is beginning to look somewhat long in the tooth, the F-22 Raptor is too expensive, potential customers for the Joint Strike Fighter will probably have to wait until at least 2010, and it is doubtful whether the Russians can deliver reliable service. This leaves the prospect of a rosy future ahead for the Eurofighter Typhoon, the Rafale and the JAS 39 Gripen, some of whose futures were hanging in the balance just a few years ago.

The four-nation Eurofighter programme currently is the best positioned. Germany, the United Kingdom, Italy and Spain have signed commitments for the procurement of 620 aircraft and firm orders have already been received for an initial batch of 148 aircraft with delivery commencing in 2003. On the strength of this order, the first export customer, Greece, has already been won. Although the contract has not yet been signed, the government in Athens confirmed in March that it intends to purchase 60 Typhoons plus a further 30 options, with first deliveries planned for 2005.

The decision of the Norwegian government, which has a requirement for 20 aircraft worth around DM 2.6 billion, is awaited with suspense, although reports emerged in mid-April that the Chief of Defence Staff, General Frisvold is thinking of postponing the purchase until after 2010 due to funding difficulties. Such uncertainties are quite normal in the aerospace industry though, and the Eurofighter partners, who have set up a new company specifically to market the aircraft world-wide, are still aiming at 400 export sales.

Although the test programme is significantly nearer to completion and the first production aircraft has been flying since December 1998, exports of the Rafale are not coming so easily to Dassault. It would appear that the company is now paying the price for the French withdrawal from a European collaborative programme at the beginning of the 1980s, which means it is now entirely dependent on the goodwill of the French government. The latter is taking its time over placing orders - to date it has ordered only 41 aircraft plus 20 options - although the Armée de l'Air and above all the Aeronavale, which needs to equip its new "Charles de Gaulle" carrier, have a combined requirement for 262 Rafales.

By contrast, Saab's JAS 39 programme has an assured future. Despite pending drastic cutbacks in its defence budget, Sweden is still planning to purchase 204 Gripens (including 28 two-seaters). With the aid of its co-owner, BAE Systems, the Scandinavians have also succeeded in landing an order from South Africa for 28 aircraft to be delivered from 2007.

As well as the new fighters, Europe is extremely well placed as regards production of trainers. Aermacchi and BAE Systems are continuing to sell, respectively, their popular MB-339 and Hawk jet trainers, while in the Czech Republic Aero Vodochody is currently developing the L 159. This is also offered in a single-seat version as a light fighter aircraft. Finally, Pilatus of Switzerland has two successful turboprop trainers in the PC-7 and PC-9, of which it has already sold over 750.

Other programmes on the horizon include the Mako, a Mach 1.5 trainer/fighter jet for which Dasa is seeking partners. The next generation of fighter aircraft will probably end up being a single European solution. BAE Systems and Dassault are already performing concept studies in a joint venture company. They could soon be joined by Dasa (EADS) and Saab. However no requirement is foreseeable before 2020. Hence the industry is hoping for some new experimental platforms in the style of the X-31 to enable them to keep on the ball technologically.

From FLUG REVUE 6/2000