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RAFALE PROGRAMME FACES FRENCH BUDGET UNCERTAINTIES

by Karl Schwarz

From the technical point of view, Dassault Aviation can be very satisfied with its next-generation multi-role fighter aircraft Rafale. Since the first flight on May 19, 1991, the four prototypes have accomplished the majority of the test program without major problems. According to Dassault, the integrated test teams have meanwhile opened the entire flight envelope, including flights with heavy external stores (external tanks and Apache stand-off weapons). Recent important milestones included:

  • Completion of the qualification for aircraft carrier operations.
  • Clearance for air-refueling from French Air Force Boeing C-135FR.
  • Completion of the trials with the internal GIAT canon.
  • Extreme low-level flights over sea and land, involving use of digital terrain databases (with autopilot and manual).
  • Qualification of the Snecma M88 engine.
  • Installation and first flights with the integrated Spectra system for electronic warfare.
  • Launch and data transfer for course corrections of a Mica air-to-air missile.
  • Prove of the air-to-air modes of the RBE2 radar.
According to the French procurement agency DGA, there are no problems in the way for the final evaluation of Rafale in its first production configuration (F1). Due to the financially caused program delays, it was possible to converge the number of different equipment and software standards. As of today, the following configurations are projected:
  • F1: Basic functions for air-to-air operations of Rafale M, including IFF, gun, Magic 2 (IR missile), and Mica (radar-guided missile).
  • F1.1: Software changes which allow to use the Mica with IR seeker head and allow for a data exchange with Northrop Grumman E-2C Hawkeyes.
  • F2: The standard for the first French Air Force Rafales which are scheduled to enter service in 2002. Additional features include the low-level capability (with radar or terrain data-base), along with the launch capability for stand-off weapons (Apache, laser-guided bombs).
  • F3 and F4: Available in 2007 to 2009. Include further optimizations, such as the integration of the Sextant helmet-mounted dsiplay Topsight, as well as the capability for reconnaissance missions and for the carriage of nuclear cruise missiles.
  • There will also be a special configuration for potential export customers, which will probably not differ too much from the French versions.
RafaleThe export of Rafale will become a decisive question for Dassault since at home, the company, which ironically is owned mainly by the government, is facing some headwind from its customers as of late. Repeatedly, funding was cut and anticipated orders were postponed.

This is no wonder, says the French accounting office. According to a recently published report, none of the usual five-year plans of the government in the nineties lasted longer than twelve months, resulting in short-term changes to the defence budget with procurement cuts between 1,6 and 3,6 billion Marks per year.

For Rafale, this meant that in 1993 just two aircraft were ordered, three in 1994, five in 1995 and three in 1996. Even a part of the funds for these orders and the production preparation was frozen in November of 1995, resulting in an almost complete stand-still of the production program. Furthermore, it became public in the beginning of 1996 that the deliveries to the French Air Force were reportedly to be delayed until 2005.

According to Dassault, this would be harmful to the company's export efforts. Very rarely has a customer bought an aircraft which is not in operational service in its domestic market. Due to this, there were some discussions whether a half squadron of Rafales could already enter service shortly after the turn of century, sort of being a demonstration unit for interested foreign customers.

The pressure for significant costs cuts was increasing. The new DGA head Jean-Yves Helmer was meant to squeeze 30 percent out of all programs. Since Rafale was already far into the development, this program was still to save ten percent. Dassault and the DGA finally agreed on this number in January of this year. In return, Dassault Aviation and its industry partners were to receive a long-term contract for 48 aircraft.

However, since the socialist government of Prime Minister Lionel Jospin is at the controls in France, there is not much left of this promise. Defence Minister Alain Richard is to present a deep and extensive study about the procurement plans first.

However, this is not easy in the case of Rafale, since the planned merger of Dassault Aviation and Aérospatiale is not completed yet. After it looked like Serge Dassault had given in under the Juppe government, he stated in July in front of the French parliament's Defence Commission that such a merger would only be possible "if the share of the government in the new company does not exceed 50 percent." This, however, is not to the liking of the new socialist government.

While nobody doubts that Rafale will be built, the number of aircraft leaves room for speculations. As of now, the need is estimated as follows:

  • 60 Rafale M (instead of 86) for service on the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle. The aircraft has a fly-away price of approximately FF315 million per aircraft.
  • 139 Rafale B (two-seater) and 95 Rafale C (single-seat) for the French Air Force. Fly-away price approximately FF299 million and FF282 million respectively.
Should the replacement of the nuclear bomber Mirage 2000N be canceled, as reportedly demanded by Finance Minister Strauss-Khan, the total number of Rafales would decrease from 294 to 219.

The outlook for Dassault is not promising. France is now realizing also that the country cannot afford its own fighter development any longer. The mistake of saying good-bye to a European cooperation due to excessive claims to leadership will probably not be made again, especially since there will probably be only one European fighter manufacturer left when the development of a Rafale successor is due.

From page 50 of FLUG REVUE 10/97


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