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Home | Update | LATEST ISSUE | Gallery | FR Profile | Datafiles | FR 1/98 SEP BETS ON ARIANE 5 by Wolfdietrich Hoeveler How can Europe keep its leading position in the international launch business? FLUG REVUE spoke with the old and the new head of the French company SEP, Roger Vignelles and Jacques Rossignol. The international launch and satellite market will grow, offering a large potential. In this respect, the former head of Société Européenne de Propulsion (SEP), Roger Vignelles, and his successor, Jacques Rossignol, agree. However, the competition will become harder. In Vignelles' short assessment, Proton and Atlas are the most dangerous competitors to Ariane 5. The joint venture ILS (International Launch Services) is negotiating with the US Air Force and with Russia. China is back in business since the problems with its Long March rocket seem to have been solved. Japan will enter the market later. Vignelles continues, saying that the potential of the Sea Launch Venture, in spite of a program delay, is being watched by SEP very carefully too. Vignelles foresees a launch market for 30 to 35 geostationary telecommunication satellites per year, a number that he says will probably stay at that level for a while. On the other hand, he sees quite some movement in the market of the so called constellation satellites for regional mobile telecommunication networks: "The constellation satellites are becoming bigger and bigger since they need more energy. The orbit altitudes are increasing at the same time. That's why Ariane 5 is the best choice. The rocket was optimized for the launch of geostationary satellites and was supposed to carry the European space shuttle Hermes into space. Our main focus must be to further optimize Ariane 5. The rocket needs a new upper stage, improving its flexibility for the launch of satellites into various orbits, at the same time expanding the launch rocket's payload capacity." In Rossignol's point of view, the first phase of a performance increase is possible to achieve until 2003. "If we get a Go next year, it will improve the market potential for Ariane 5 tremendously. The future competitor EELV (Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle) from the US Air Force is still on the drawing board and doesn't offer anything new as compared to Ariane 5. The first performance improvement would require investments of approximately one to two billion French Francs." Vignelles adds: "The industry would participate with a major share in these investments if the European governments decide to cover the long-term development in parallel. We must also expand our experience with cryogenic engines and must be able to build lighter structures with new materials to be able to reduce the launch costs." Both, Rossignol and Vignelles, say no to the possibility of developing a smaller launch system. Rossignol: "The market for small payloads is limited and only very difficult to assess. We would need at least ten launches per year to return the development costs. Also, we might be too late on the market with such a launch system anyway because of today's long development periods. The optimization of Ariane 5, on the other hand, will give us all the opportunities in the near future." The key to the future is not only with the industry. The governments must decide to what extent they want to support the continued development of Ariane 5, such enforcing Europe's position in this market. Vignelles is optimistic that this will happen, although the states of the European Union are already carrying heavy loads with their economical problems, somewhat reducing their political support for the program: "The market is big and the insight along with the chances are there." From page 47 of FLUG REVUE 1/98 Home | Update | LATEST ISSUE | Gallery | FR Profile | Datafiles | FR 1/98 Copyright 1997/98 by Motor-Presse Stuttgart. All rights reserved. Last updated December 5, 1997 FLUG REVUE, Ubierstr. 83, 53173 Bonn, Germany