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Home | Update | LATEST ISSUE | Gallery | FR Profile | Datafiles | FR 7/98 AIRBUS OUTLINES PLANS FOR THE FUTURE by Norbert Burgner At this year's Airbus Technical Briefing at Toulouse in the mid of May, the new head of the consortium, Noel Forgeard, outlined the company's strategies for the future: "I can confirm Jean Pierson's aim to achieve a 50 percent share of the worldwide airliner market. To realise this, we need to have a complete product line, a competitive company structure possibly maintained by changing Airbus Industries into a stockholding company and finally a common positive view which is absolutely necessary regarding the restructuring of the European aerospace industry. On the way towards a market leadership together with our competitor Boeing we launched the new Airbus family members A340-500 and -600 at the end of last year. These two aircraft should provide the first thrust in the competition against the Boeing 747, the early models of which have already reached the end of their design lives. According to own releases Airbus has got 98 options for these two four-engined aircraft so far, which equals a sum of 13 billion US dollars. Shortly after the end of the briefing Singapore Airlines, one of the leading airlines of the world, ordered five A340-500 and placed options for a further five planes. Without doubt this is to be seen as an important signal for the market. The new A340 designs are supposed to be able to fly at longer distances than any other present aircraft. The A340-600 has a range of 13900 km with 380 passengers and 26,9 tons of freight on board, while the A340-500 can carry 313 passengers and 21,9 tons of freight over a range of 15750 km. According to recent Airbus news, both aircraft offer up to 14 percent less relative operating costs per ton-mile and 20 percent less general operating costs per trip than the 747-400. This should save the operator up to 10 million US dollars per year and aircraft. The first flights of the new A340's are planned for the beginning of 2001, deliveries should start in spring of 2002. Regarding the next higher market segment, Airbus wants to step into action with its mega-liner A3XX by October 2004. Like his predecessor, Noel Forgeard does not mind that the introduction of the 550-seater, originally planned for the end of 2003, was delayed because the specification data concerning the operating costs could not be finished in the original time frame. "All of the 20 airlines we are working with have assured us that it is the result that counts, not a short delay." Airbus Industries has recognised a market potential of 1300 units for an airliner with more than 400 seats. The newest market research of the company indicates that of the estimated 16700 aircraft to be delivered until 2017, 17920 as a whole, the mega-liner segment will compromise 26 percent of the revenues, equalling 300 billion US dollars, at leats 50 percent of which Airbus wants to gain with the A3XX. Airbus Senior Vice President Commercial John Leahy stated that 26 percent of the total jet transport from the sixties up to today has been done by the 747. "In the year of 1967 over 299 billion seatkilometers were sold worldwide. At the end of our forecast period this alone will be the yearly increase. We will not leave this field to Boeing without a fight. Airbus wants to decide on the final design of the A3XX by the end of this year. One of the several required specification data is the reduction of operating costs by 20 percent regarding the 747. This cannot be achieved solely by reducing the fuel consumption or the maintainance costs but more likely by combining the cash operating cost including landing and airway fees with the cost of ownership. At present the list-price of the A3XX would be 198 million US dollars, compared to the 156 million US dollars of the 747-400. But due to the higher seating capacity of the Airbus the costs per seat, 356000 US dollars, are even less than those of BoeingÕs flagship (370000 US dollars). To fulfill the technological conditions the designers have reworked the configuration of the two-storried giant. The angle of sweepback was increased to enable the plane to fly at the highest possible speed below the speed of sound (higher critcal Machnumber). The supercritical profile of the wing was optimised out of the same reason. These measures necessitated the shifting of the engines in the outward direction. The aft part of the fuselage was lenghtened to improve the handling of the aircraft, which also made possible the reduction in size of the tail unit. On the other hand the nose of the A3XX had to be lowered to correspond with the changed aerodynamics. Concerning the giant's engines, Airbus has agreed upon the technical details with Rolls Royce and recently with the partners of the engine alliance, General Electric and Pratt & Whittney (GP7200 engine, 338 kN/7600lbs) as well. The delivery contract is to be signed during the next few weeks. Airbus will at first offer three different versions of the A3XX: the basic model -100 with a length of 72,50 meters, the -200 which is lenghtened by 6,40 meters and finally the shortened -50 with a lenght of 67,40 meters. Span (79,80 meters) and height (24,10 meters) are the same on all versions. The A3XX-100 is supposed to carry 550 passengers in a three classes layout over distances of up to 7650 nautical miles (14168 km). In a single-class configuration the aircraft could hold 1000 passengers. Airbus states that the capacity of the larger -200 is the same as the -100 only with 656 passengers on board. The small -50 is said to be able to carry 480 people over the same distance. First available on the market will be the A3XX-100 followed by the -200 and then the -50. Furthermore Airbus is evaluating the development of longe-range, freight and combi versions. The long-range model, called -100R, will be able to transport the same number of passengers as the -100 but will have a range of up to 8750 nautical miles (16200 km). The combi version could carry 402 people and eleven pallets of freight over a distance of 680 nautical miles (12590 km) while the freighter would be able to haul 150 tons of cargo to destinations as far away as 5500 nautical miles (10186 km). Yet unsolved is the open question of where the new mega-liner is to be assembled. Hamburg seems to be in the process of being dropped from the list because of constant struggles over the wildlife reservoir Mühlenberger Loch. Rostock could be an alternative because the city would finance the logistical infrastructure. Additional funds could be drawn from the European Union. The French competitors Toulouse ans St. Nazaire stand good chances let alone because they are French locations. Spain's Sevilla is favoured Airbus-internally due to its good traffic structur and, foremost, its reasonable coststructure (low wages). Only spanish manufacturer Casa's small part in Airbus (4,2 percent) could represent a little problem. Therefore speculation will be going strong until the final decision is taken next year. On the smaller end of the product line every thing is still focused on the 100-seater. Even with the apparent end to the european-asian AE31X program, John Leahy showed himself confident of the cooperation with Chinese AVIC and Singapore Technologies. Listening to his words at Toulouse, one could have the impression as if there never were any problems with the Chinese partners. But the fact remains that China is not interested in a fruitful cooperation but soley in technology to be copied. If everything would happen according to the view of the Aviation Industries of China, Airbus might just as well place an A320 complete with all construction plans on the Place of Freedom. The AE31X has just an alibi function, which is shown by the fact that China wants to gain the position of Holder of Certificate, enabling the Chinese to copy and to further develop the aircraft. Therefore China, which has almost no experience in the field of aircraft-building apart from some experiments with McDonnell Douglas aircraft like the MD-90 Trunkliner, would be liscensed to construct planes right on the back of Airbus Industrie. This cannot be in the interests of both the European consortium and, in respect of flight safety, the Airlines and their passengers. If negotiations should fail Airbus would have another ace in the sleeve: the A319M5 as a shortened version of the smallest current Airbus product A319. But aerodynamic problems of the designated rival to the Boeing 717 are likely to surface due to the further shortening of the fuselage and the resulting misplaced relation between lenght and fuselage width. For that reason a M4 version could be possible instead of the A319M5 which is shortened by three meters (total lenght 30,80 meters) in comparison to the basic A319. All together Airbus is currently working on up to 20 different potential design solutions. All in all John Leahy is very confident that because of Airbus' ambitious product strategy "people will win a lot of beers in the pubs worldwide, placing bets on the fact, that Boeing's success will decline in the future". From page 30 of FLUG REVUE 7/98 Home | Update | LATEST ISSUE | Gallery | FR Profile | Datafiles | FR 7/98 Copyright 1998 by Motor-Presse Stuttgart. All rights reserved. Last updated June 9, 1998 FLUG REVUE, Ubierstr. 83, 53173 Bonn, Germany