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BOEING PUSHES C-17 FOR CIVIL USE

Is there a potential civilian market for a military wide-bodied transporter? If so, then only a negligible small one, will be the answer most "experts" are likely to give you. So far the transport of heavy goods only played a minor part in the international air-cargo business. The development of this sector of the market was mostly neglected in reports and forecasts. According to general opinion any prospective business was hardly worth mentioning. This sector, in which a few "adventurers" tried to compete with the established carriers who used water and railways, seemed too specialised and of little potential. Apart from this the carrier that was being used was regarded as anything but reliable.

However, companies flying the An-124, like HeavyLift/Volga-Dnepr, Air Foyle, Ayaks, Rossya, Transcharter or Titan have maintained their position over the last few years. In fact they have done so well that industry is now showing a lot of interest in this alternative method of transport. One thing is sure, the time factor, which determines our actions and thinking more and more, is onthe side of the flying "barges".

This is the main reason for the fact that Volga-Dnepr, for example, currently the biggest An-124 operator, increased its turnover sevenfold from 1991 to 1996. In 1996 this company transported 40,000 metric tons in all, an increase of 36 per cent compared with 1995. Volga-Dnepr's turnover amounted to 101 million US Dollars. The gross income of all An-124-Operators ammounted to 170 million US Dollars.

Among the customers are Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Caterpillar (the US manufacturer of building machinery), NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA). The former McDonnell Douglas was also a customer.

The prices, which these customers have to pay for the services of the Antonow, are not cheap. For example: The transport of GE-90 engines for the Boeing 777 from the General Electric factory in Cincinnati, Ohio, to Seattle will cost 175,000 US Dollars. Transporting rocket stages of Ariane IV and V from Europe to Kourou in French-Guyana might cost between 250,000 and 350,000 US Dollars.

"It is not exactly cheap," explains Air Foyle Boss Christopher Foyle. "However, the balance of price and performance is correct, when you consider the cost of damages, which have to be paid for delivery delays or the costs and losses, which are incurred when production comes to a halt."

According to Foyle, the heavy cargo market is fraught with penalties. "Fees payable for delays are the order of the day, although haulage firms are beginning to recognise the advantages of air transport. The freight, which is often intended for the development of infrastructure or industrial projects, e.g. cranes, bulldozers, agricultural machinery, oil drilling equipment, boilers or generators for power plant, will reach its destination a lot faster with us. We save time and money."

Had the air cargo alternative been used continuously when considering various projects in Asia, construction times could have been shortened by one to two years, and several hundred million US Dollars could have been saved. "Very often earlier delivery dates give a competitive edge. There is absolutely no argument against our service," explains Foyle.

Despite all this many firms are still using the conventional way: "I assume that only 15 per cent of all the transports we carry out were actually planned in advance. Most seem to be spur of the moment decisions. Many customers are still thinking too conservatively." However, Foyle is sure that, "The increasing awareness of the transport alternative An-124 will make the market grow further."

The result of various studies that have been carried out in the meantime proves him right. Business with "Outsized-Air-Cargo" is said to increase tenfold by 2010. The annual turnover is 1.5 billion US Dollars. The reason for this assumption is that over the past few years about 4.5 billion tons were transported by ship. Oil products and grain made up 56 per cent. However, 44 per cent or almost two billion tons were big individual goods.

If you make a tentative estimation and assume that only 0.1 per cent of these unwieldy goods are from now on transported by air, there will be an annual cargo demand of two million tons. If you compare how much the biggest Outsized-Air-Cargo Business Volga Dnepr transported in 1996, i.e. "only" 40,000 tons, there is definitely room for more business.

A growth potential of up to 5,000 per cent? Not entirely. Various studies done by analysts working for the Air Cargo Management Group (ACMG) or the firm of Consultants SH&E, pointed out that by the year 2010 the tonnage that will have to be transported will increase tenfold.

Currently there are only 20 An-124 in use around the globe. There will be a need for about 200 aircraft in this category.

These assumptions are supported by results from other surveys. For instance the US Trade and Development Authorities have agreed on 61 energy and infrastructure projects in South East Asia, valued at 113 billion US Dollars. In order to extend modern civilisation, 15.3 billion US Dollars have been pledged for Central and Eastern Europe, ten billion are designated for Africa and 17.8 billion for South America.

This is where Boeing sees a chance to get a foothold with the MD-17. Rick Fuller, spokesman of the Boeing Airlift Division in Long Beach explains, "We certainly will not push the An-124 out of the market place. However, we have definite advantages in certain areas and we intend to make full use of these."

According to Fuller the C-17/MD-17's decisive characteristic is its flexibility, when it comes to a variety of missions: "Our aircraft is able to transport containers and unwieldy goods directly to the furthest corners of the earth."

Although conventional freighters like the 747 and MD-11 have considerably higher payloads, they are limited, because of their small cargo holds, to transporting conventional freight only.

If you take the 747 for example, the goods, which are to be transported, must not exceed a height of 3.05 meters. The MD-17 cannot load anything up to 4.5 meters.

One further characteristic in the MD-17's favour is that heavy loads need not be lifted up to giddy heights as is the case with the 747F and are then rolled into the cargo hold through the open nose, but are loaded directly from ground level via the tail ramp. The C-17 was fitted with these wide loading ramps because of military requirements.

"Using the 747F requires a certain infrastructure which is not needed for the MD-17. This is an advantage in remote places, which will make the difference between success and failure of the mission in question," explains Fuller.

The biggest problem that traditional freighters and the An-124 have to cope with, is the fact that they are not able to take off and touch down on short landing strips. This is of decisive importance when new regions are being opened up.

The MD-17's payload is just 50 tons. This is a little more than half of the MD-11's maximum capacity (89,552 kg), a little less than half the payload of the 747 (113,000 kg) and a little over a third of the payload of the An-124. According to international regulations, (landing distance over a 15-meter obstacle), the three planes above require a landing strip of a minimum length of between 2,000 to 2,400 meters.

If the C-17 is carrying two thirds of its maximum payload (77,290 kg), it only needs 853 meters for a safe landing. The aircraft's propulsion and lift system makes this possible. The enormous landing flaps are driven into the exhaust stream of the four PW2,000 engines. This stream is directed downwards, which enables the aircraft to approach at a very steep angle and at a low speeds. Certification conditions will reveal whether Boeing has assumed that parameter, which was set for military deployment, will also be permitted by the FAA or whether the results have to be adjusted. Boeing will do anything to assert this unique characteristic of their aircraft for civilian application.

Whatever happens, if the above data are assumed to be correct and bearing in mind that the MD-17 like her military model would be able to take off and land on unprepared landing strips, this aircraft would open more regions for her owners and clients than any other competitor.

The Antonow for example can touch down on 306 airports in the Pacific region. The MD-17 would be able to use 616. In Africa the An-124 is able to reach 227 destinations, the MD-17, however, 750. In South America 116 airports can be used by the Antonow and 688 by the Boeing transport.

China, which is seen as the growth market of the next decade, has 119 airports with landing strips that are long enough for the MD-17. The 747 can only use 12.

The Boeing Airlift Division is sure that MD-17 owners will profit from the increasing congestion at major airports. "We do not need the infrastructure and logistics of an international hub airport. Why should you stand in queues that are continuously growing longer, if you could operate just as well from smaller airports situated on the periphery? Landing and handling fees and shorter standing times will make business much cheaper," advertises Rick Fuller.

Marketing managers situated at the former McDonnell Douglas headquarters in Long Beach have to put a lot of effort into advertising the MD-17. The military aircraft has, after all, a price tag of 173 million US Dollars, very steep indeed for civilian use. This is very much the case since her application is very specialised.

According to Boeing the price will be adjusted. "Many features that are required for military use, (air-to-air fuelling system or electronic counter-measures), are not needed for civil aviation. We are aiming to realise a price of 150 million US Dollars," explains Fuller.

He estimates a market potential of 40 to 50 units for the new aircraft. "We would be happy with that amount of orders. After all, the MD-17 isn't a costly new development, but a profitable synergy." Are there any customers yet? None up to now, but there is the possibility of an order from Great Britain. There have been rumours for some time that HeavyLift and the Royal Air Force are interested in using the aircraft jointly. They might be interested in up to six units. However, after the results of the Strategic Defence Review, which was commissioned by the Labour Government, the RAF voted unanimously, as was to be expected, for the military version C-17. It is uncertain whether HeavyLift will purchase the MD-17 on its own or will wet-lease the C-17 for civilian purposes.

In any case, we are reliably informed by Fuller that all the major air freight firms have been contacted, e. g. Lufthansa Cargo or Cargolux. These airlines could operate the MD-17 jointly in an "Outsized-Aircargo-Alliance."

Rick Fuller is convinced that, "The MD-17 is not only a new aircraft. She is the epitome of a new logistic era." Time will tell whether the cargo industry is of the same opinion. Boeing is not taking a risk with this project. The Pentagon foots the bill for the (military) program. Ten orders for the launch of the civilian spin-off of the MD-17 would suffice.

From page 14 of FLUG REVUE 9/98