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EUROPEAN COUNTRIES SEEK NEW MILITARY TRANSPORT

Europe needs a new military transport, and Germany needs a Transall successor. Engaged in the competition are the Airbus project A400M, the Ukrainian An-7X (the name of the program for the An-70) as well as the Lockheed Martin C-130J and the Boeing C-17 from the United States. The last two designs seem to not really fit the requirements of most of the seven countries involved (Great Britain, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Belgium and Turkey) because the C-17 is too expensive as well as to large and the C-130J is too small on the other hand. This only leaves the Airbus solution and the Russian-Ukrainian alternative. But which one is to be chosen?

Supported by the recently founded Air Truck GmbH (a consortium of several German aerospace companies), Antonov is promoting its more economical solution compared to the A400M. The projected development costs of 910 million Euro (amount as of July 1998) could make a price of around 48 million Euro per aircraft possible. That would be approximately 30 percent less than Airbus will have to demand.

However, Toulouse says that for exactly 23,2 billion Euro, the customer will get a technically certainly not inferior but far more reliable solution.

Basically, the technical know-how of Antonov (airframe and systems) and Progress (engines) offers a "high degree of confidence on a successful final development", according to an internal paper in the German ministry of defence. But against the background of the infamously reknowed state of economics in the countries of the former Soviet empire, doubts on the long-term financial and therefore operational ensurement of the An-7X program are not unjustified.

Finally around 700! subcontractor companies are to take part in the construction of the Antonov aircraft. Regarding this sheer number the chances of reaching an answering machine instead of a business person at any given time to talk about logistical issues are significantly better than winning in the lottery. Furthermore, the recent experience of a strict Russian veto to any support of NATO operations in Kosovo leads to the question whether this attitude could also result in a supply-stop of spare parts in the case of the An-7X which in the end could paralyse the European logistic arm of NATO.

On the other hand, dismissal of the Antonov proposal could be understood by the Russian-Ukrainian friends as a political vote of inconfidence (or they could want to understand it that way). With regards to the integration of the Eastern countries, this would be a severe drawback to this integration process which the West is pursuing so benevolently. Could this be a "killer-fact" against Airbus?

What happens to the A400M if Antonov should win the deal? Dasa, which is the largest Airbus partner (40,2 percent), would see no reason to continue the program. If there was an export potential with a four-digit number of aircraft additional to the European need for just 288 planes, the loss of the 75 A400Ms destined for Germany and the resulting loss of subsidies may be compensated. Since the market forecast range from zero to 300 machines, this business case is simply not given.

At the same time it is especially interesting to observe the decision-making process of the British partner. The Ministry of Defence (MOD) ordered C-130Js from Lockheed Martin, and just to be sure wants to place some C-17s on the apron as well. How this behaviour corresponds to the Airbus plans in terms of rationalisation appears only to be known on the island.

But why should one place the own commitment so early after all?! It would be so nice if the Airbus consortium could pass the blame for stagnation over to the Germans for a change.

Consequently, everybody is waiting for the decision in the German ministry of defence. The state of affairs there: After a first evaluation by the German procurement agency the competing offers are located in the department Rüstung Rü VI2 at the Hardthöhe now. There on the other hand, everybody is waiting for instructions by the ministry of finance because of the saving plans of the secretary of finance Eichel. Maybe the new military transport will even be allowed to have windows?

Until that day the motto which currently appears to be symbolic for the idea of an integrated European aerospace industry proves to be valid in this case as well: who moves first will loose.

From page 4 of FLUG REVUE 8/99