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 VIP interview
Scott E. Carson
Executive Vice President, The Boeing Company
President and Chief Executive Officer, Boeing Commercial Airplanes
FLUG REVUE: The first 787 is expected to taxi out of the hangar shortly before publication of this issue. Is the programme on schedule?
Carson: All the signs are that we will be able to meet our certification and delivery schedule. The maiden flight is planned for the end of August. But we don't want the aircraft to take off until it is really ready, so it could also be September.
FR: This time you are following a new concept and building the aircraft with help from a number of global partners. Will you use this method on future Boeing programmes?
Carson: Probably, yes. Not necessarily with the same geography, but certainly as far as the importance of partners is concerned. For example, if I were to build an aircraft the size of the 737, one of the options would be to locate our partners' facilities not far from final assembly. I have in mind something like the Japanese Toyota City car factory. But we still have some way to go before making any decisions like that. Anyway, the basic idea of involving partners with investment and expertise seems to have worked out.
FR: You have unveiled a new variant of the jumbo jet, the 747-8. As a cargo aircraft it is selling well, but the passengers version has not yet really taken off. Why do you think that is?
Carson: The cargo version has been optimised in such a way as to ensure that it got off to a really good start. As far as the passenger version is concerned, we are expecting several fleet decisions from traditional large airlines in Europe and the USA towards the end of this year and the beginning of next year. But we certainly aren't unhappy about the present state of affairs and we even expected it to be like this. The first flight of the 747-8I will be only nine months behind the cargo version.
FR: In the industry there is already talk of a possible 737 successor. When might we expect that, and what form will it take?
Carson: The problem is that the 737 successor would have to be a lot better than the present aircraft on economy. It needs to be so good that the huge investment is worth it to the operators. In our initial thinking we have been working on the assumption of an improvement in direct operating costs of around 10 percent. Our customers actually want a 15 percent improvement. Our decision has to be right on the spot. It also affects the engine manufacturers and system suppliers and will have to stand up over several decades. Otherwise it will be expensive for everyone, including the operators. I am therefore assuming an in-service date in the rough timeframe of around 2015.
FR: What seat capacity do you expect to cover?
Carson: We are looking at the whole market for aircraft in the range 100 to 220 seats. But whether it will still be feasible to operate a 90- to 110-seater profitably with oil prices of $70 a barrel and new European aviation taxes and CO2 levies, we don't yet know. So perhaps we will build the whole thing as “one and a half” aircraft families.
FR: Why is the demand for aircraft undiminished despite the high price of oil?
Carson: It is because of the high oil price, not despite it. If you are operating the MD-80 or an older 737 or A320 today, you are at a terrific cost disadvantages. At the same time operating the fleet is becoming more expensive and you don't have the money to purchase new aircraft. Once the crude oil price reaches $58 to $62 it pays to buy more new aircraft, and that is what we are seeing today.
FR: Boeing is much more cautious about increasing production than Airbus. Don't you trust the market?
Carson: We are looking firstly at the market, long-term demand and the timing of it, and secondly at our suppliers. Will they be able to deliver everything we need? And thirdly, the financial markets must be in a position to come up with the finance for these transactions. Only if these three pillars come together can we avoid overproduction. That would not be good for anyone.
FR: How long will the oil last? Will we soon need new energy sources for aviation?
Carson: We expect fossil fuels to get more and more expensive and that the pressure to reduce CO2 and other emissions will get steadily tougher. We are therefore researching alternatives such as fuel cells for auxiliary turbines or biomass, which is a byproduct of the production of biodiesel from waste. We need to find out whether we can manufacture adequate quantities and whether these fuels will also work at high altitude and in the cold. In 30 years' time I expect jet fuel to be a mixture of biofuels and fossil fuels.
FR: If one wanted to reduce the amount of fuel used in overcoming drag, one could develop flying wings. Why aren't there any civil flying wing programmes, as there are among the military?
Carson: Our Phantom Works plant has been studying flying wings for some time. But there are a number of questions still unanswered. How will the passengers feel if they are sitting 40 to a row and maybe right at the outer edge of the wing and the aircraft takes a bend? Or what would people make of a windowless fuselage? The big windows on the 787 are actually one of its especially popular features. And finally, how do we organise ground handling for an air vehicle with such a huge wingspan, far wider than that of the 777? These are just some of the questions.
Sebastian Steinke was asking the questions.
From FLUG REVUE 8/2007
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